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Showing posts from April, 2015

All Terrorism leads to the Al Saud

The request for Pakistani support to invade Yemen and now the threats from "friendly Muslim Brotherly Countries" UAE and KUWAIT. The sound bites and rationale been publicly stated about invading Yemen, sound eerily similar to the reasons put forward by Bush and Blair to invade Afghanistan and then Iraq !!!

They opened the route for a more powerful country to attack another simply on the basis of aprojected future possible danger from them. Pre emptive Defensive Aggression.  USA invades Afghanistan. USA invades Iraq, twice. Israel attacks the Arabs in 1967, Lebanon decades later and continues to occupy and increase its physical space. And now Saudi launches an air invasion on a terribly weak and poor "Brotherly Muslim Country". Yemen. 
Ee did right by refusing NOT to get involved in YEMEN or in Saudi Arabia. The bogey being raised to defend the "Khana Kaaba" is just that, a bogey.

 The House of Saud, the Holy Sites and Nejd and Hejaz are very different enti…

UAE's Threat to Pakistan. An intemperate outburst unbecoming of a Friend

Dr. Gargash's statement clearly shows the UAE and the GCC and Saudi Arabia are very angry. It appears that Saudi Arabia's  chosen the good cop bad cop routine, with UAE being the bad cop.

Pakistan and UAE have had a close mutually beneficial relatioship since the country  became independant. Shaikh Zayed the founder and first Ruler considered Pakistan his second home. He was very liberal in helping Pakistan in times of economic hardship.

In return Pakistani engineers helped set up Etisalat and the power utilities. Pakistani military trained the UAE military.  Pakistani pilots trained UAE pilots. PIA  helped establish Emirates airlines.  Pakistani skilled and unskilled workers helped the Emirate establish and run its Banking,  Health care, Construction, educational and other sectors.

Millions of Pakistan have benefited tremendously, especially economically, from the economic opportunities in the UAE.

Internationally the relationship between the UAE situation was different. Th…

Saudia Arabia's Strategic Blunder in Yemen - Fighting the Wrong Enemy

My perspective is that Saudi Arabia made a huge strategic and tactical blunder and miscalculation in getting involved in this several decades long Yemeni civil war.

And I also think it's fighting the wrong enemy. Their real enemy is Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and DAESH. Not the Houthies.

This civil war has been going in different forms since the 1960s after the Zaydi Imamate was overthrown and the country divided into the Communist North and Muslim South as two countries. North and South Yemen.

At that time the Saudis actively supported the Houthis against the communists who were supported by the Socialist Nasser and his Egyptian Army. Over the years the conflict has morphed taking tribal, factional, religious and sectarian forms. Between various tribes and factions,  Al Qaeda, Abdullah Saleh, Abd Rabo, the Zaydi Syeds and now a sub part of them, the Houthis.

So a real messy hell hole. And Saudi Arabia chooses to step into it. Again. Wow !!

Also for the first time in nearl…

House of Saud, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan and Iran

..... "Nawaz Sharif, specifically, is very much Saudi Arabia's man in Pakistan," Mr. Alwaleed says....(Prince Waleed's interview with the Wall Street Journal)

.this is the most direct reference by Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz on how the Saudis exercise control in Pakistan through "their man" Nawaz Sharif and their "gifts".....another leading European Geo Political analyst calls Nawaz Sharif ...."the Saudi ruling family's "Shoeshine" boy ready to do their bidding at the drop of the hat...."

So the Saudi ruling family wants Nawaz Sharif to send "Sunni" Pakistani troops to help them fight a loosely confederated rag tag bunch of Yemeni tribes and Zaidi Houthis who've been fighting anybody and everybody forever.

These guys are as trigger happy as our own local Houthis called the FATA PATHANS! ! And in the 1960s they caused 20,000 Egyptian troops to reach the Maker quicker than they expected. So b…

A possible Middle East in 10 years - 2025

This is a hazardous and controversial attempt to try and see how events can unfold in the Middle East in the next 10 years.

My reasons for these assessments are at the tail end of this post.

These are purely based on my pretensions to be a geo-political analyst and a psuedo historian. So please feel free to differ.

Thank you

1. House of Saud unlikely to last out the decade. Don't see another King from the Abdul Aziz family. Or maybe perhaps just one more.

2. Sectarian strife in Eastern provinces of Now KSA. Likely join Bahrain.

3. ISIS/DAESH will take over some parts of the Arabian Peninsula. In some cases already has through the AQITP in the Yemen. This area will eventually fall to DAESH who are a much much greater threat to the House of Saud than the Houthies can ever be.

4. Bahrain will be ruled by its majority Shia citizenry.

5. Other Monarchies in Gulf will follow KSA. Demographics in these countries will exercise their natural and logical state.

6. Iran will emerge as the …